Skip to contents

The positive log-likelihood of a surface of deviations indexed by year and a second dim, under iid, random walk, 3D GMRF (marginal or conditional variance) or separable 2D AR(1) process error. Selectivity deviations use it over years and bins, growth's semi-parametric deviations over years and ages, and a time-varying growth parameter over years alone, a surface one column wide; the argument names read bin for that second dim throughout. The caller negates the result.

Usage

Get_PE_loglik(
  PE_model,
  PE_pars,
  ln_devs,
  map_sel_devs,
  map_sel_devs_full,
  min_sel_devs_shared_bins,
  rw_init_sigma = 5
)

Arguments

PE_model

Integer process error structure: 1 iid, 2 random walk with a diffuse prior at y = 1, 3 and 4 the 3D GMRF on the marginal or conditional variance, 5 the separable 2D AR(1) over bins and years.

PE_pars

Array of process error parameters [1, par_index, sex, 1], whose par_index slots depend on PE_model. Models 1 and 2 hold a log standard deviation in slot 1, indexed by bin. Models 3 and 4 hold the unconstrained partial correlations by bin, year and cohort in slots 1 to 3 and a log variance in slot 4. Model 5 holds the unconstrained bin and year correlations in slots 1 and 2 and a log standard deviation in slot 4.

ln_devs

Array of log-scale deviations [1, year, bin, sex, 1].

map_sel_devs

Integer array [fleet, year, bin, sex] mapping the deviations to estimated parameters. Shared deviations hold the same integer, and NA entries are fixed and left out of the likelihood.

map_sel_devs_full

The same map across every unit this penalty is evaluated over, that unit being the first dim: regions for selectivity, populations by region for growth. A deviation shared over those units is one parameter appearing in each of their slices, and this function runs one unit at a time, so its contribution is divided by the number holding it. Without the split, a series shared over n units is penalized n times, an implicit \(\sigma / \sqrt{n}\).

min_sel_devs_shared_bins

Integer vector of the reference bin within each shared deviation group, used to subset the bin dim under process error models 3 to 5. Defaults to 1:n_bins when no bin sharing is set.

rw_init_sigma

Standard deviation given to the first year of a random walk. A number (5 by default) leaves that year effectively unconstrained; NA starts the walk at zero under its own sigma.

Value

Numeric scalar, the positive log-likelihood, negated by the caller.